Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Amelia Bourdeau wants to short EUR/NZD at 1.7400 target 1.7000 stop 1.7650

Date: 7/5/2011

CNBC Money in Motion trader Amelia Bourdeau wants to short EUR/NZD on a breakdown through 1.7400.
Trade summary: Short $EURNZD at 1.7400 target 1.7000 stop 1.7650 which is a R:RW of 400:250 or 1.6:1.
Here is Ms. Bourdeau's rationale for her EUR/NZD short trade idea from July 5, 2011:


Last week Amelia's AUD/JPY short trade idea from 6/27/2011 (two days before the 6/29/2011 Greek austerity vote) as presented on Fast Money was either not triggered to get short, or the trade would probably be stopped out by now if entered. I feel that Amelia was probably looking for a break of the previous day's (6/26/2011) low of 84.051 as a trigger to get short since the entry price of the trade is shown as 84.0500:
No trade parameters other than entry price were given on Fast Money for this particular trade.
Following is the rationale behind Ms. Bourdeau's AUD/JPY short trade idea from 6/27/2011:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000030114

Amelia presented an earlier trade idea to short the EUR/JPY on CNBC Fast Money before Melissa Lee went on vacation. This earlier trade was stopped out for -170 pips.  The EUR/JPY short was presented on CNBC Fast Money the day before the Greek confidence vote (6/20/2011 is the trade presentation date, 6/21/2011 is the Greek confidence vote).  Here are the trade parameters of that trade:
Here is the rationale behind Amelia's 6/20/2011 EUR/JPY short trade idea:

It seems as if much of Wall Street was caught on the wrong side of the Euro last week. Andy Busch was also stopped out on his EUR/USD short idea as presented on Money in Motion on Friday June 24, 2011 for -250 pips.

All of the stop outs do not mean that the currency traders' overall thesis is wrong. Obviously the price action indicates that the timing and/or estimation of the level of volatility/optimism was not correct with regards to the Euro.

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