Showing posts with label Harmonic Trader. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Harmonic Trader. Show all posts

Monday, October 4, 2010

Dow is a textbook bearish Gartley

Very creepy how mechanical the Dow futures is being with regards to this bearish Gartley pattern which appears to have completed at point D.  The AB leg is almost symmetric to the CD leg in both price (1168 points versus 924 points) AND time (28 days rally to peak at B opposed to 25 day rally to peak at D).

Compare the above chart to where the actual peak is at D to the rough estimate I did weeks ago where I simply projected forwards in price and time via symmetry with the white solid chalk lines:
Looking for 10840 on Dow Futures by End of September 2010

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

US Dollar in Deep Doo-Doo by Elliot Wave Price and Time Symmetry

I did another Frankenstein style analysis where I combined Scott Carney's Harmonic Trader chart patterns with Bob Prechter's Elliot Wave patterns. Historically the huge drop in 2009 of the US dollar index has followed the Elliot Wave 5-3 (12345ABC) model quite nicely as shown in yellow, which includes fractal (sub-waves) development. Also the chart pattern unfolding now in 2010 could also be a Harmonic Trader Bullish Gartley or Bullish Bat formation ([X][A][B][C][D]) which has yet to complete at white point [D]?.

To keep it simple I projected 3 target areas, two based on fibs of [X][A] and an ultimate target which is the symmetric extension of Elliot wave a (small yellow a) where yellow va=bc? (or white [A][B]=[C][D]?
Target 1. .618 [X][A] = 79.73
Target 2. .786 [X][A] = 77.30
Target 3. 1.618 yellow va where va=bc? (or white [A][B]=[C][D]?) = 74.70 by 10/18/2010

Why must yellow wave c terminate ideally at 74.71? Excerpt from Bob Prechter's eBook "How to Call the Market Using Elliot Wave Principle":

Monday, September 13, 2010

AUD/USD Time Symmetry Shows Rally Can Last Until 9/24/2010

AUD/USD appears to be in the last leg (fifth wave) of an Elliot Wave method trading pattern or also the third drive of a Scott Carney Harmonic Trader pattern.  I believe most of the experts would agree both of these systems are mutually inclusive rather than exclusive and hope I have not butchered their stuff here.  What struck me as fitting the model perfectly is that the rallies from AB and CD both last 27 days, perfect time symmetry.  Projecting forwards the patterns should ideally complete on 9/24/2010 having rallied for at least 777 pips from the low point of 4 (assuming that this final wave can go up at least the height of AB).  This leaves 10 more rally days for the Aussie and minimum target of .9550 (or so).
If I screwed up bad please leave a comment :)

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