Thursday, September 9, 2010

If China Econ Data Shows Slowdown AUD/USD will Suffer

Traders will be keeping their eyes peeled for the Chinese economic data which will be released Friday evening (tomorrow 9/10/2010), two days earlier than originally scheduled. [1]  If there are any major disappointments or indication of slower growth, risk appetite on a global scale should be adversely affected.   Bloomberg news service sites that there is speculation that the movement of the economic announcement forwards by two days signals that China might tighten deposit rates to "curb inflation of savings by lending". [2

The Australian economy is tightly coupled with the #2 ranked Chinese economy and the AUD/USD is poised to take a big hit based on technicals, unless the Chinese economic data remains hot.  If the bear scenario plays out, I am looking for .8790 by 9/25/2010 and .7950 by 10/12/2010 as potential targets.  If point D on this bearish bat formation is invalidated (e.g. if China still shows surprising/impressive figures), a breakout should be able to get to .9400 then possibly .9600.

1. Forex Factory Economic Calendar Forex Factory Web site
2. China Day Ahead: Speculation of Deposit Rate Increase; Tighter Trust Rules Bloomberg News