Showing posts with label Elliot Wave. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elliot Wave. Show all posts

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Weekly AUD/USD Elliot Wave Counts

Can Aussie hit parity this time?  If white wave (5) is extended it might, otherwise if it ends with turquoise wave 5 that is where there will be a major sell-off.
My strategy is to buy pullbacks until target around .9550 - .9600 is hit, otherwise just wait for those areas.
See related article here.
If you have any insights or suggestions please leave a comment.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Changed my Mind on EUR/USD Long Term Bullish but Can Short Here for Scalp

Longer term, Euro looks much higher, these fractal waves (in white) within the bigger 5-3 Elliot Wave pattern (yellow i,ii,iii,iv,v,a,b,c) give confirmation that the yellow a and b are accurate.  That implies the yellow c wave should at least rally past a.  Even if we only test yellow a that is about 296 pips from current price of 1.3007

Right now however is a bad place to go long since there is a big resistance zone being near a triple 0 (1.3000) and the 61.8 retracement of yellow ac (1.3048).  Also there is a Bearish Gartley developing here on the 4 hour chart so in fact is a short term short signal:
I would be more inclined to buy pullbacks and not trust the short side too much.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

US Dollar in Deep Doo-Doo by Elliot Wave Price and Time Symmetry

I did another Frankenstein style analysis where I combined Scott Carney's Harmonic Trader chart patterns with Bob Prechter's Elliot Wave patterns. Historically the huge drop in 2009 of the US dollar index has followed the Elliot Wave 5-3 (12345ABC) model quite nicely as shown in yellow, which includes fractal (sub-waves) development. Also the chart pattern unfolding now in 2010 could also be a Harmonic Trader Bullish Gartley or Bullish Bat formation ([X][A][B][C][D]) which has yet to complete at white point [D]?.

To keep it simple I projected 3 target areas, two based on fibs of [X][A] and an ultimate target which is the symmetric extension of Elliot wave a (small yellow a) where yellow va=bc? (or white [A][B]=[C][D]?
Target 1. .618 [X][A] = 79.73
Target 2. .786 [X][A] = 77.30
Target 3. 1.618 yellow va where va=bc? (or white [A][B]=[C][D]?) = 74.70 by 10/18/2010

Why must yellow wave c terminate ideally at 74.71? Excerpt from Bob Prechter's eBook "How to Call the Market Using Elliot Wave Principle":

Monday, September 13, 2010

AUD/USD Time Symmetry Shows Rally Can Last Until 9/24/2010

AUD/USD appears to be in the last leg (fifth wave) of an Elliot Wave method trading pattern or also the third drive of a Scott Carney Harmonic Trader pattern.  I believe most of the experts would agree both of these systems are mutually inclusive rather than exclusive and hope I have not butchered their stuff here.  What struck me as fitting the model perfectly is that the rallies from AB and CD both last 27 days, perfect time symmetry.  Projecting forwards the patterns should ideally complete on 9/24/2010 having rallied for at least 777 pips from the low point of 4 (assuming that this final wave can go up at least the height of AB).  This leaves 10 more rally days for the Aussie and minimum target of .9550 (or so).
If I screwed up bad please leave a comment :)

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